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Hello Again - It’s all too easy to get the jitters about the economy when stocks slide for a few days right?  We suddenly start to wonder if the doom and gloomers on the internet might be right after all.   This here is my reminder to you that the demand for homes has not gone away, and that housing is critical to a healthy economy.  Not only have we under built housing in recent years for multiple reasons (including covid), but the high population of millennials continues t

Hello Everyone - For now the Bull Market in stocks is alive and well.  5-10% corrections like we are currently experiencing are very normal. Our general strategy remains unchanged at this time. That is: Long-term money should stay the course and even buy the dips when they occur. Short-term money should utilize current CD rates that are well above 5%. Yes, I remain optimistic at this time as the trends signal more gains to come by the end of the year. But, be prepared for some normal summer

Hi All - Let’s talk about investment strategy today, but let’s add a little twist.  Let’s talk about what I’m not really fond of. One of those would have to be international stocks and bonds.  I really don’t like to put much money there and for good reason. I know, I know, wall street keeps telling us how great it is, but the historical results are quite different.  Therefore here at Wealth Mgmt, LLC we keep international allocations very low here for

Here is some excellent research by Sam Stovall over at CFRA Research. They asked the following question: If the broad stock market has a really strong first quarter, what typically happens for the remainder of the year?  The results are really interesting!Mike Bottom line: the years that start really strong tend to finish even stronger!Just look at the yellow columns below. It lists the year, the first quarter return, and then the full year return. Typically it is higher….not al

What is Bitcoin? Hello Everyone - Someone once said “may you live in interesting times”. My goodness. That is an understatement right now.Colleen and I recently returned from San Diego.  We met with friends there and it was an amazing trip. Everything from Mission Beach, touring the Midway, Little Italy, and the Vineyards in Temecula were all terrific, and the people were amazing too. I would go back in a second.  In San Diego, electric and hybrid vehicles, buses and b

Hello Again - The United States is the place to invest for growth! Freedom is a powerful force, and people from all over the world want to come here.  More people means more demand, and more demand means more production of goods and services. This is NOT political, this is simply economics. Add to this the maturing of the millennial households, and then throw artificial intelligence and other technology on top of it all……and BOOM! This explains what is happening in the stock m

Hello Again - I’d like to talk about some new ideas today, but first let me share a story.  I got into this business in January 2000.  The stock market had been surging for 5 years as new technologies were coming onto the scene like the internet and cellphones. It was the very peak of the stock mania at the time, but of course I had no idea, and nor did anybody else. Pretty much everything I invested in went down for the next 2 years as stocks imploded. Then there was the 911 tra

Hello Again - The stock market is rising. Below is a graph of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow), ever since the great recession back in 2008. So many economic events have happened, yet the market keeps plugging along.  And here’s the thing, I still feel there is much more to come.But I want to caution everyone ahead of time.  It’s going to be real easy to wait to long to get in. Many are still scarred from recent events and are sitting tight. They are waiting for t

Hello everyone and welcome to 2024. I’d like to talk about my market outlook. Please understand, outlooks are not precise.  Ten different analysts may give you 10 different outlooks.  Nonetheless, here is mine.Context (This is the Main Story)Based on current demographic trends (see chart below), the US is at the beginning of a rather large household formation cycle, and we know from similar trends in the past, that this cycle can have a big impact on the economy.I’m talking

New Highs in the Dow Jones Folks!This is what I have been talking about!Now we need bond prices to recover! Mike

Hello Again - Generally speaking this means lower prices at the pump which is good news right?  Here’s what else it may mean:Economics 101:Lower oil prices = lower inflation = lower interest rates = higher bond prices and potentially higher valuations for stock prices!That’s right.  Interest rates directly affect the price of stocks and bonds as a whole.  As rates went up, we all got banged around a little.  Now if they can come down some, we think that will put t

Hello Again - I can’t help but send out one more note this week.  Let’s look at this chart below (If you cannot see the charts, then try right clicking and choosing “show pictures”). This chart shows the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow), all the way from the lows way back in 2009, through today 12/1/23.  It’s finally happening.  In my humble opinion the bull market is back!! Just look at the resilience of the US stock market.  

Hello Again - Today’s Consumer Price Index report (The CPI) came in better than expected. It suggested that inflation month to month was zero, and that year over year it was down to just 3.2%.  The Fed’s target for inflation is 2%, so they are getting closer. Apparently this surprised a lot of people because the Dow Jones is up over 500 points today as investors all try to jump on the bus at once.My personal view, although challenged at times, has not changed.  That is that

Hello Everyone - I just have to acknowledge the extreme volatility in the stock market recently. Stocks were down a whopping 6% during the 2nd half of October.  Now in just the past 5 days it has recovered pretty much all of it. What a wild ride! This volatility makes investors nervous (including me).  But, if you look closely at the chart of the S&P 500 below, and you look where the arrow is, you’ll notice that the market came down and hit my blue line! I wasn’t really

Hello Everyone - Below see a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow) since the lows of Covid back in March/April 2000.  The Dow bottomed near 18,000 back then and then doubled to over 36,000 by December 31st 2021.  That means it took about 21 months to double in that situation.  That was a good run for investors.  But then 2022 came along which was mostly downward, and now 2023 is mostly flat.   You can see all of this fluctuation on the chart below. The Dow

Hello Again – Some of you may remember the 1980’s smash hit by ZZ-Top “the Future’s So Bright I Have to Wear Shades”.  It may not be obvious yet, but I think that song would be very fitting for the next several years.  And I believe at some point, with the benefit of hindsight, it will indeed be obvious to most.  However, by the time it becomes obvious to the public, stock prices will be much, much higher than where they are now.As you can see below,

If some of your stock funds seem like they are lagging this year,  then it could be explained by something called beta. This means that some stocks or groups of stocks tend to be more volatile than others. For instance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow) was down only 8.7% in 2022, while the Nasdaq was down a whopping 33.4%.  But now in 2023, the Dow at the end of June was up 3.8%, while the Nasdaq was back up over 31%. The Nasdaq&nb

Many are surprised by the economy's resilience.  Not us! The economy is strong and probably going to stay that way for some time. Freddie Mac says the USA is short by nearly 4 million homes. Those homes are going to have to come from somewhere. The millennials need housing right now, and after that they will need toys and tennis shoes and everything else that has to do with owning a home and raising some children.  It’s best to have your investments positioned for this coming

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 428 points today as the upward trend continues.  This is the big story for long-term retirement investors folks!  If you stopped buying in 2022, then it’s time to start again.  Fund your IRAs and your Roth accts now. Put long-term money to work now. I expect this trend to just keep on keepin on.I used to talk a lot about the millennial baby boom and how they would be forming their own households.  This is happening now.&

Hello Everyone - The stock market is rising.  Certain technology stocks moved first, and now the rest of the market is starting to follow suit.  As you know, I have been waiting for this.  I believe this is the beginning of the next great bull market in which many people that have the courage to invest in the stock market could do very, very well.  But time is of the essence.  The sooner you can get invested the better.  Don’t wait for the good news.  Whe

Hello Everyone – I want to leave you all with a positive message as we enter the long weekend.  The S&P 500 stock index bottomed back in October 2022, and continues to trend higher to this day.  It’s slow, but it is happening (see chart below). These debt ceiling negotiations have potential to be a very positive event for the country, and we should know more next week.  Regardless of party, we should all be able to agree that it’s time to reign in deficit spe

Hello Again – Today we’re gonna talk about “What could go right?”.  I have been and continue to be optimistic.  But why?  People ask me this all the time, they say Mike, I just don’t understand your level of optimism.  And I get it.  At times it is hard to maintain. But nonetheless, the story has not changed.  It has been delayed, but it has not changed. We’ve been in the soup for 16 months folks.  So really, I look around an

Hello again everyone -  We are ending this week on a very positive note!  The S&P 500 finally closed above my special indicator line.  This is the first time in 12 months that it has done this.  This is just another indication that the stock market probably bottomed back in October last year, and is now trending higher.  The media is still screaming sell, and the doom and gloomers will dig in their heels,  but be careful who you listen to. Here at Michael Traxle

Hello Again, so glad tax season is behind us.  Just a quick note to let you know that the stock market continues to act positively.  It’s up big today.  See the blue line below. The S&P 500 is right back up against it rubbing it yet again.  It looks like it intends to go through it.  If so, this would be a very positive development.  I remain very optimistic as company earnings have been coming in better than expected for the most recent quarter.  But

Hello Again - The CPI for March was just 1/10th of 1% increase month over month.  That’s a nice low reading.  Year over year it is still 5%, but that’s still the lowest year over year reading in 2 years.  In other words, the interest rate hikes are working to curb inflation. Money is coming out of the system and things are slowing.  That’s good news.Of course there is still a risk of recession if the Fed keeps raising rates and kills the economy. 

Hello Everyone – Just a reminder that the US Tax deadline for 2022 taxes is next Tuesday April 18th .  This means you need to have your taxes filed on or before that day.  It’s also the deadline for funding any IRA or Roth contributions for the 2022 tax year.  For small business owners, it’s the deadline for your SEP IRA and even any Simple IRA contributions you still need to make for 2022.  After the 18th they are null and void for the previous ye

Hello Again – It’s time to turn back to the charts because things are happening fast. This here is a chart of the S&P 500 (The S&P).  This represents the stock price of 500 of the biggest publicly traded stocks in America, and it’ my favorite barometer for the broad stock market. Remember how I pointed out the blue line awhile back?  I said if it can get through that line, then all indicators would be a go.  Look what the S&P is doing.  It&r

Hello Everyone – I will keep this very short.  Look at that S&P 500 go!We have not flashed a full fledged Green yet, but it won’t be long if this keeps up. Stay tuned.I have been waiting for this, and this is why I try to keep our clients invested. Email me if you have questions.Best Reagrds,Mike2 ½ Year Chart of the S&P 500 stock index.  A widely followed index that tracks 500 of the biggest stocks in America. 

Hello Again - Have the tides turned in the stock market?  It’s possible. You know as well as I do that we never know for sure, but we do watch the tea leaves for any hints.  We’ve been following the chart of the S&P 500 closely and I’m pleased to report that price has finally closed above the downtrend line the last 3 days in a row!  This is the first time since January 1st 2022 which is when the down trend started.  One other thing, our forward ind

Hello Everyone – Here’s a quick view of some of the changes to retirement account rules for 2023.  These limits are higher than 2022 limits.Remember that investors must qualify for these plans.  That’s where we can help.  Email me with any questions! Best regards, Mike 

Hello Everyone and welcome to the New Year!  I am so excited to be moving forward. Let’s make this the year we update our plans and get reset for the future.  That’s our goal for our clients in 2023. As it relates to the markets, take a look at the S&P 500 chart below. It looks like the stock index wants to take another stab at the trendline.  Anything is possible here folks, but if it gets over that line and stays there, that would be a good sign for the mark

Hello Again – In March this year the Federal Reserve started hiking key interest rates to try and reduce inflation.  The last 4 hikes were each .75%.  But today they raised them by only .50%.  What does it mean?  I think it means they are getting closer to their target rate at which point they would stop raising rates.  I don’t know that for sure, but that’s my hunch.Here’s the game of chicken being played by the Fed.  When they raise rates t

Hello Again – This is a chart of the S&P 500 stock index ever since May 2020.  So it covers about 2 ½ years or so. You can see the big rally after the covid shutdowns when the Fed pumped all the money into the system. Then you can see the downtrend that started at the beginning of this year as the Fed started to pull back on the support it provided, and even drain money out of the system.  That’s still happening as of now.  Hence the down trend is still inta

It’s time for a big sigh of relief right?  The election is over, and the nasty annoying political ads can finally stop. Amen to that!So what happened?  Not as much as the talking heads anticipated that’s for sure. It sounds like the house will go to the republicans in a simple majority, and the outcome in the senate is still not know.  Last time I looked it was 48 to 48 in the senate with 4 races still outstanding, and sounds like we won’t hear the final outcome

Hello Again – Years ago I used to buy a lot of Brokered CDs and bonds for client accts, but when the Fed pushed rates down close to zero, that pretty much turned things off.  But, it appears this market is coming back again. I have noticed that Brokered CD rates are getting attractive again.  So what is a Brokered CD?Banks from around the country offer their CDs (Certificates of Deposit) through brokerage firms. They are much like bank CDs but they can be bought and sold at any t

Long-term investing means just that.  Holding long-term through ups and downs.  Yes it’s challenging at times, but that’s part of the journey. There are no shortcuts, there is no free lunch, and timing and trading doesn’t work. Many of the so called successful traders that piled onto the noisy trading platforms during the frenzy are gone now, or at a very minimum are dormant. The public loves stocks at the top, and they hate stocks at the bottom.It went down further t

Hello All - Fed Chairman Powell made his intentions clear today.  That is, to get inflation back down to 2%.  How they gonna do this?  Inflict some pain on the economy by raising borrowing costs.  Ok, why raise borrowing costs?  Because when borrowing costs go up, the number of borrowing transactions goes down.  Another word for a borrowing transaction is credit, and credit is money!!  That’s right.  When someone borrows from the bank, that creates m

Hello Everyone –  Colleen suggested that I write about inflation today.  Is it really running at 8.3%?  My answer is no….not anymore, and not based on the most recent data.  She asked me to explain this, and she told me to call it Economics 101.  Ok I said, I’ll try.  Here it goes.Inflation measures the change in prices over time.  This means we need a beginning date and an ending date. The government tries to measure inflation using the CPI,

Hello Again - As many of you know, Laurie has retired, but she wanted us to tell everyone that she is feeling better than she was and she is grateful for all the prayers and well wishes.  We miss her and we pray she has a solid recovery.Today I’d like to re-introduce Ernie Pepel.  Ernie comes from the automotive business and he started here in October 2019.  He has been here nearly 3 years now.  He passed the exam quickly to become an investment advisor and was licensed

Hello, it’s Wednesday again.  Lets talk about something different today.  I’ve been pondering an idea I wanted to run by you all to see what you think. Did you know that Minnesota is home to a substantial number of large businesses? It has about 18 companies in the fortune 500, but there are actually 50 some publicly traded companies that have annual revenue greater than $200M.  That’s a nice selection of businesses to invest in. We are toying with the

Hello Everyone, its Wednesday again! I want to be clear with you on something here. Although my indicators are telling me the bottom in stocks could be behind us already, the actual trend change has still not happened.  The S&P 500 remains in a downtrend at this time.  It has some hurdles to clear yet and that could happen soon, but it has not quite happened yet. I will be the first to let you know when that changes. So today I’d like to talk about rollovers.  A rol

Hello Again - The stock market has come a long way in a short period of time.  Since mid-June it has recovered approximately 60% of the decline that happened in the first part of the year.  So what’s the outlook now? There’s two general scenarios. Scenario 1, inflation starts to recede, the Fed starts to slow it’s interest rate hikes in the near future, the economy experiences a soft landing and stocks keep trending higher from here.  That’s the good s

The Russell 2000 is a market index that tries to capture the movement of 2000 different small-cap companies.  It is a popular index and is watched closely.  Small-caps make up 10% of our all stock ETF model.The chart below shows that the small-cap index has clearly broken through the downtrend line that started last fall.  This is a positive sign in my humble opinion, and more reason to believe that the worst could be behind us. Now we are watching for the large cap index to signa

Hello Everyone and welcome to August.  My how time flies doesn’t it?  This is a huge reason why I like to just sit tight with my investments……because a year or two goes by so fast it doesn’t pay to be trading in and out.  The long-term really isn’t that long-term after all. Let’s go back in time to the last time the US was experiencing high inflation and the Fed was raising interest rates rapidly.  That was back in the early 1980&rsq

Here are a few things to consider in regards to the 2020 retirement changes, remember to speak with a professional advisor for help with retirement options and financial goals.

A quick update regarding the stock market, as of May. We know it took a 35% sharp decline, it was fast and scary. BUT now it’s climbing! What does this mean? Read more here to find out…

Don’t let your hard earned money be subject to losing its value. Talk to Michael Traxler Wealth Management, LLC financial planners to see what your options are and how you can invest your funds.

Customized investment solutions through Michael Traxler Wealth Management, LLC can help you plan for retirement and reach your financial goals. Learn about what makes us unique.