Blog

The Price of Oil has been Falling!

December 7, 2023

Hello Again - Generally speaking this means lower prices at the pump which is good news right? Here’s what else it may mean:Economics 101:Lower oil prices = lower inflation = lower interest rates = higher bond prices and potentially higher valuations for stock prices!That’s right. Interest rates directly affect the price of stocks and bonds as a whole. As rates went up, we all got banged around a little. Now if they can come down some, we think that will put t

Dow Jones Closes Over 36,000

December 5, 2023

Hello Again - I can’t help but send out one more note this week. Let’s look at this chart below (If you cannot see the charts, then try right clicking and choosing “show pictures”). This chart shows the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow), all the way from the lows way back in 2009, through today 12/1/23. It’s finally happening. In my humble opinion the bull market is back!! Just look at the resilience of the US stock market.

Potential Year End Tax Deduction

December 4, 2023

Hello all, the end of the year is coming up fast. We have to act now if we’re going to do this at all. In Non-Retirement investment accounts, the law still allows for a $3,000 tax loss expense if we can capture it before the end of the year. It’s referred to as tax loss harvesting. In 1978 they set this at $3,000 and have not bumped it up since. This is a trajesty because inflation has nearly wiped it out over time. But, it’s still a small tax perk we can look

New Employee

November 16, 2023

Hello Everyone - I would like to introduce to you our new hire Carin Rezac. She joined us recently in an administrative and client services role. She brings with several years of this type of experience and has some banking experience as well. She is in training now with Ted, as well as with the rest of us, but will be actively involved rather quickly. We welcome Carin to the Wealth Management Team and look forward to her assistance in serving all of our clients more effectivel

Stock Rally Continues!

November 14, 2023

Hello Again - Today’s Consumer Price Index report (The CPI) came in better than expected. It suggested that inflation month to month was zero, and that year over year it was down to just 3.2%. The Fed’s target for inflation is 2%, so they are getting closer. Apparently this surprised a lot of people because the Dow Jones is up over 500 points today as investors all try to jump on the bus at once.My personal view, although challenged at times, has not changed. That is that

Stock Market Retests the Breakout!

November 7, 2023

Hello Everyone - I just have to acknowledge the extreme volatility in the stock market recently. Stocks were down a whopping 6% during the 2nd half of October. Now in just the past 5 days it has recovered pretty much all of it. What a wild ride! This volatility makes investors nervous (including me). But, if you look closely at the chart of the S&P 500 below, and you look where the arrow is, you’ll notice that the market came down and hit my blue line! I wasn’t really

Sideways for Now!

October 19, 2023

Hello Everyone - Below see a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow) since the lows of Covid back in March/April 2000. The Dow bottomed near 18,000 back then and then doubled to over 36,000 by December 31st 2021. That means it took about 21 months to double in that situation. That was a good run for investors. But then 2022 came along which was mostly downward, and now 2023 is mostly flat. You can see all of this fluctuation on the chart below. The Dow

The Long View is Looking So Bright!!

July 13, 2023

Hello Again – Some of you may remember the 1980’s smash hit by ZZ-Top “the Future’s So Bright I Have to Wear Shades”. It may not be obvious yet, but I think that song would be very fitting for the next several years. And I believe at some point, with the benefit of hindsight, it will indeed be obvious to most. However, by the time it becomes obvious to the public, stock prices will be much, much higher than where they are now.As you can see below,

Are Some of Your Investments Lagging this Year? Then Read on!!

July 6, 2023

If some of your stock funds seem like they are lagging this year, then it could be explained by something called beta. This means that some stocks or groups of stocks tend to be more volatile than others. For instance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow) was down only 8.7% in 2022, while the Nasdaq was down a whopping 33.4%. But now in 2023, the Dow at the end of June was up 3.8%, while the Nasdaq was back up over 31%. The Nasdaq&nb

The Economy Is Strong!

June 29, 2023

Many are surprised by the economy's resilience. Not us! The economy is strong and probably going to stay that way for some time. Freddie Mac says the USA is short by nearly 4 million homes. Those homes are going to have to come from somewhere. The millennials need housing right now, and after that they will need toys and tennis shoes and everything else that has to do with owning a home and raising some children. It’s best to have your investments positioned for this coming

Another Big Day Up!

June 15, 2023

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 428 points today as the upward trend continues. This is the big story for long-term retirement investors folks! If you stopped buying in 2022, then it’s time to start again. Fund your IRAs and your Roth accts now. Put long-term money to work now. I expect this trend to just keep on keepin on.I used to talk a lot about the millennial baby boom and how they would be forming their own households. This is happening now.&

The New Bull Market and Your Financial Plans!

June 13, 2023

Hello Everyone - The stock market is rising. Certain technology stocks moved first, and now the rest of the market is starting to follow suit. As you know, I have been waiting for this. I believe this is the beginning of the next great bull market in which many people that have the courage to invest in the stock market could do very, very well. But time is of the essence. The sooner you can get invested the better. Don’t wait for the good news. Whe

The New Bull Market!

May 26, 2023

Hello Everyone – I want to leave you all with a positive message as we enter the long weekend. The S&P 500 stock index bottomed back in October 2022, and continues to trend higher to this day. It’s slow, but it is happening (see chart below). These debt ceiling negotiations have potential to be a very positive event for the country, and we should know more next week. Regardless of party, we should all be able to agree that it’s time to reign in deficit spe

What Could Go Right Here?

May 17, 2023

Hello Again – Today we’re gonna talk about “What could go right?”. I have been and continue to be optimistic. But why? People ask me this all the time, they say Mike, I just don’t understand your level of optimism. And I get it. At times it is hard to maintain. But nonetheless, the story has not changed. It has been delayed, but it has not changed. We’ve been in the soup for 16 months folks. So really, I look around an

Another Good Sign!

May 1, 2023

Hello again everyone - We are ending this week on a very positive note! The S&P 500 finally closed above my special indicator line. This is the first time in 12 months that it has done this. This is just another indication that the stock market probably bottomed back in October last year, and is now trending higher. The media is still screaming sell, and the doom and gloomers will dig in their heels, but be careful who you listen to. Here at Michael Traxle

Back to the Charts......Are we getting close?

May 1, 2023

Hello Again, so glad tax season is behind us. Just a quick note to let you know that the stock market continues to act positively. It’s up big today. See the blue line below. The S&P 500 is right back up against it rubbing it yet again. It looks like it intends to go through it. If so, this would be a very positive development. I remain very optimistic as company earnings have been coming in better than expected for the most recent quarter. But

Inflation & Stock Market Update

April 13, 2023

Hello Again - The CPI for March was just 1/10th of 1% increase month over month. That’s a nice low reading. Year over year it is still 5%, but that’s still the lowest year over year reading in 2 years. In other words, the interest rate hikes are working to curb inflation. Money is coming out of the system and things are slowing. That’s good news.Of course there is still a risk of recession if the Fed keeps raising rates and kills the economy.

Tax Due Date

April 11, 2023

Hello Everyone – Just a reminder that the US Tax deadline for 2022 taxes is next Tuesday April 18th . This means you need to have your taxes filed on or before that day. It’s also the deadline for funding any IRA or Roth contributions for the 2022 tax year. For small business owners, it’s the deadline for your SEP IRA and even any Simple IRA contributions you still need to make for 2022. After the 18th they are null and void for the previous ye

Stocks are Rising!

April 4, 2023

Hello Again – It’s time to turn back to the charts because things are happening fast. This here is a chart of the S&P 500 (The S&P). This represents the stock price of 500 of the biggest publicly traded stocks in America, and it’ my favorite barometer for the broad stock market. Remember how I pointed out the blue line awhile back? I said if it can get through that line, then all indicators would be a go. Look what the S&P is doing. It&r

How Much Time Does your Money Have?

March 16, 2023

Hello Everyone – With recent bank news I’m getting lots of concerned emails and phone calls, and I want you to know that I see them all. I encourage you to reach out because it’s real easy to feel like you are all alone in this and then to question what it is you should be doing differently.Remember what we’ve learned here. We’ve learned that successful investing is all about time. How much time does our money have to work for us? Some like to think that

Rates Keep Rising!

March 9, 2023

Hello Everyone, Just a quick note to tell you that we are seeing 18 month CD rates at 5.4% today. That’s the highest I’ve seen in years and years. Subtract your advisory fee rate from that and that’s what we can net for you.For example, a 5.4% gross interest rate, less .85% if you are over $500k under management, and your net would be 4.55% on the CD. These rates are changing regularly, but that’s what I’m seeing right now.The plan for many middle-aged w

Mike's 5-Point Financial Plan

March 7, 2023

Hello Again - It’s March 1st today folks, and my how time flies. This is my 23rd year in the business and it’s still exciting for me. The down markets are no fun, but time seems to take care of those if we just stick around awhile!So because time goes by so fast, it makes a lot of sense to plan. Let me introduce you to Michael Traxler’s 5 point financial plan. These are the things I’m looking at when I sit down with a client to help them r

Retirement Account Rules to Consider

February 8, 2023

Hello Everyone –Financial markets have perked up quite a bit in the past 4 months. Many different stock indexes have rallied as much as 15-20% off the lows so far. Just in the first 25 trading days or so of 2023, the S&P 500 is already up 8%. This means stocks are off to a good start this year.With the tax deadline coming up, here are some things to be aware of:RMD Rules for 2023 – This is the required minimum distribution each year from an IRA. Last year the req

Is Patience Paying Off!!

February 2, 2023

Hello Everyone – I will keep this very short. Look at that S&P 500 go!We have not flashed a full fledged Green yet, but it won’t be long if this keeps up. Stay tuned.I have been waiting for this, and this is why I try to keep our clients invested. Email me if you have questions.Best Reagrds,Mike2 ½ Year Chart of the S&P 500 stock index. A widely followed index that tracks 500 of the biggest stocks in America.

Is the Bull Market Showing Signs of Life?

January 26, 2023

Hello Again - Have the tides turned in the stock market? It’s possible. You know as well as I do that we never know for sure, but we do watch the tea leaves for any hints. We’ve been following the chart of the S&P 500 closely and I’m pleased to report that price has finally closed above the downtrend line the last 3 days in a row! This is the first time since January 1st 2022 which is when the down trend started. One other thing, our forward ind

2023 Retirement Contribution Limits

January 18, 2023

Hello Everyone – Here’s a quick view of some of the changes to retirement account rules for 2023. These limits are higher than 2022 limits.Remember that investors must qualify for these plans. That’s where we can help. Email me with any questions! Best regards, Mike

Let's Update our Plans in 2023!!

January 11, 2023

Hello Everyone and welcome to the New Year! I am so excited to be moving forward. Let’s make this the year we update our plans and get reset for the future. That’s our goal for our clients in 2023. As it relates to the markets, take a look at the S&P 500 chart below. It looks like the stock index wants to take another stab at the trendline. Anything is possible here folks, but if it gets over that line and stays there, that would be a good sign for the mark

The Fed Slows Rate Hikes - The Long View!

December 15, 2022

Hello Again – In March this year the Federal Reserve started hiking key interest rates to try and reduce inflation. The last 4 hikes were each .75%. But today they raised them by only .50%. What does it mean? I think it means they are getting closer to their target rate at which point they would stop raising rates. I don’t know that for sure, but that’s my hunch.Here’s the game of chicken being played by the Fed. When they raise rates t

Let's Take Another Look at Inflation!

December 7, 2022

Hello Again, I have to circle back to a key indicator folks. INFLATION! We all know that too much inflation is bad. It picks our pockets and destroys our wealth. So what’s the latest? Are prices still rising? In some markets, maybe, like rent and labor costs, but there are many other markets that have come down significantly. This data is taken from the website www.tradingeconomics.comFrom their highest levels, wheat is down 48%, steel is down 38%, p

Keeping our Client's Costs Down while also Investing in the Business

November 30, 2022

Hello Everyone – As you all know by now, inflation has caused price increases on so many goods and services. But the good news is this…….not so much here! Our fee rates have stayed the same for years, and the total cost to do business here can decline in two ways. First, we regularly seek new ways to reduce our client’s investment costs where possible. For instance, we recently made a decision to start using more ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) i

Let's Look at the Charts!

November 16, 2022

Hello Again – This is a chart of the S&P 500 stock index ever since May 2020. So it covers about 2 ½ years or so. You can see the big rally after the covid shutdowns when the Fed pumped all the money into the system. Then you can see the downtrend that started at the beginning of this year as the Fed started to pull back on the support it provided, and even drain money out of the system. That’s still happening as of now. Hence the down trend is still inta

Does Wallstreet like Gridlock?

November 10, 2022

It’s time for a big sigh of relief right? The election is over, and the nasty annoying political ads can finally stop. Amen to that!So what happened? Not as much as the talking heads anticipated that’s for sure. It sounds like the house will go to the republicans in a simple majority, and the outcome in the senate is still not know. Last time I looked it was 48 to 48 in the senate with 4 races still outstanding, and sounds like we won’t hear the final outcome

Let's Talk about I-Bonds

October 27, 2022

Hello Again - Last week we talked about brokered CDs, today I will talk about I bonds. I get a lot of questions about these. I bonds stand for Inflation Bonds because that’s what they are designed to do…..protect an investor from inflation. But there are some unique features to be aware of. It’s not a simple bond. It has cert characteristics.So, how do they work? I bonds have 2 rates that make up the total return. The first rate is the fixed rate. It do

Brokered CD Rates

October 19, 2022

Hello Again – Years ago I used to buy a lot of Brokered CDs and bonds for client accts, but when the Fed pushed rates down close to zero, that pretty much turned things off. But, it appears this market is coming back again. I have noticed that Brokered CD rates are getting attractive again. So what is a Brokered CD?Banks from around the country offer their CDs (Certificates of Deposit) through brokerage firms. They are much like bank CDs but they can be bought and sold at any t

Interest Rates for Investors are Finally Rising!

October 13, 2022

Hello Again – Interest rates for investors and savers have been close to zero for years now, but that’s been changing…..and quickly. This gives us more tools to utilize for our client’s accounts and their investment plans. This is great news, and it’s a return to normalcy in some odd sense. It means the economy may actually be able to stand on its own two feet without requiring the steroids provided by the federal reserve. Long-term this is very promisi

Stock down 25% in 2022! What's an investor to do?

October 6, 2022

Long-term investing means just that. Holding long-term through ups and downs. Yes it’s challenging at times, but that’s part of the journey. There are no shortcuts, there is no free lunch, and timing and trading doesn’t work. Many of the so called successful traders that piled onto the noisy trading platforms during the frenzy are gone now, or at a very minimum are dormant. The public loves stocks at the top, and they hate stocks at the bottom.It went down further t

Why is the Fed Raising Rates?

September 22, 2022

Hello All - Fed Chairman Powell made his intentions clear today. That is, to get inflation back down to 2%. How they gonna do this? Inflict some pain on the economy by raising borrowing costs. Ok, why raise borrowing costs? Because when borrowing costs go up, the number of borrowing transactions goes down. Another word for a borrowing transaction is credit, and credit is money!! That’s right. When someone borrows from the bank, that creates m

What is Inflation at NOW?

September 15, 2022

Hello Everyone – Colleen suggested that I write about inflation today. Is it really running at 8.3%? My answer is no….not anymore, and not based on the most recent data. She asked me to explain this, and she told me to call it Economics 101. Ok I said, I’ll try. Here it goes.Inflation measures the change in prices over time. This means we need a beginning date and an ending date. The government tries to measure inflation using the CPI,

Meet the Staff - Ernie Pepel

September 7, 2022

Hello Again - As many of you know, Laurie has retired, but she wanted us to tell everyone that she is feeling better than she was and she is grateful for all the prayers and well wishes. We miss her and we pray she has a solid recovery.Today I’d like to re-introduce Ernie Pepel. Ernie comes from the automotive business and he started here in October 2019. He has been here nearly 3 years now. He passed the exam quickly to become an investment advisor and was licensed

Minnesota's Best?

August 31, 2022

Hello, it’s Wednesday again. Lets talk about something different today. I’ve been pondering an idea I wanted to run by you all to see what you think. Did you know that Minnesota is home to a substantial number of large businesses? It has about 18 companies in the fortune 500, but there are actually 50 some publicly traded companies that have annual revenue greater than $200M. That’s a nice selection of businesses to invest in. We are toying with the

Rollovers and Best Practices

August 24, 2022

Hello Everyone, its Wednesday again! I want to be clear with you on something here. Although my indicators are telling me the bottom in stocks could be behind us already, the actual trend change has still not happened. The S&P 500 remains in a downtrend at this time. It has some hurdles to clear yet and that could happen soon, but it has not quite happened yet. I will be the first to let you know when that changes. So today I’d like to talk about rollovers. A rol

Stocks Have Moved Up! Plus, It's Time to Consider Your RMD

August 17, 2022

Hello Again - The stock market has come a long way in a short period of time. Since mid-June it has recovered approximately 60% of the decline that happened in the first part of the year. So what’s the outlook now? There’s two general scenarios. Scenario 1, inflation starts to recede, the Fed starts to slow it’s interest rate hikes in the near future, the economy experiences a soft landing and stocks keep trending higher from here. That’s the good s

Small Caps Turn Up?

August 15, 2022

The Russell 2000 is a market index that tries to capture the movement of 2000 different small-cap companies. It is a popular index and is watched closely. Small-caps make up 10% of our all stock ETF model.The chart below shows that the small-cap index has clearly broken through the downtrend line that started last fall. This is a positive sign in my humble opinion, and more reason to believe that the worst could be behind us. Now we are watching for the large cap index to signa

Looking Back in History......Deja Vu All Over Again?

August 4, 2022

Hello Everyone and welcome to August. My how time flies doesn’t it? This is a huge reason why I like to just sit tight with my investments……because a year or two goes by so fast it doesn’t pay to be trading in and out. The long-term really isn’t that long-term after all. Let’s go back in time to the last time the US was experiencing high inflation and the Fed was raising interest rates rapidly. That was back in the early 1980&rsq

Retirement Changes for 2020

June 17, 2020

Here are a few things to consider in regards to the 2020 retirement changes, remember to speak with a professional advisor for help with retirement options and financial goals.

Market Updates with Mike - May 2020

May 26, 2020

A quick update regarding the stock market, as of May. We know it took a 35% sharp decline, it was fast and scary. BUT now it’s climbing! What does this mean? Read more here to find out…

The Value of Your Money & Inflation

May 21, 2020

Don’t let your hard earned money be subject to losing its value. Talk to Michael Traxler Wealth Management, LLC financial planners to see what your options are and how you can invest your funds.

The Financial Planner For You

May 12, 2020

Customized investment solutions through Michael Traxler Wealth Management, LLC can help you plan for retirement and reach your financial goals. Learn about what makes us unique.

Michael Traxler Wealth Management, LLC

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